Hubris and the Bremerton Real Estate Market in September 2020

For a real estate agent—or a seller—in this market, it’s not difficult to fall victim to hubris. Endless buyers vacuum up limited supply. Difficult or challenging properties fly off the market at prices 5-12% above (already outrageous) asking prices. We realtors and sellers take credit for our intelligence and good timing. We think it will last forever! Buyers are making life-changing decisions--often prior to seeing the property in person. Every day I watch the numbers--and the people behind the numbers--and wonder how long this can go on. Is it possible that markets really don’t have cycles? That, until now, we just haven’t had the proper person manipulating the proper levers at the proper time? I’m uneasy. There are artificial forces at work adding fuel to this fire. It can't last forever. Can it?

New construction single family homes are increasingly comprising a larger share of the market. 185 properties came on the market in Bremerton in September—up almost 30% from September 2019.

All of that new supply was gobbled up like ice cream on a hot summer day. There were 186 properties actively on market—down 33% from the same period in 2019.

The number of properties under contract--pending sales--were up 25% from the year before. This was led by the new-construction plats in 98312 where pending sales were up 43% from September 2019.

173 sales transactions closed in Bremerton in September. Up 14% both from September 2019 and August 2020.

The median price for properties in Bremerton was $366,375 in September 2020. Up 13% from 2019. And, interestingly, up 5% from August 2020.

 A note about the spikes in these numbers and percentages. I’ve been using each month as a separate data point. Initial I did this because wanting to isolate the effect of Covid-19. Since we now have 6 months of post-pandemic information, I probably will change to a three-month rolling average starting in October—the first month of the last quarter.

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